Page 13 - Nov/Dec 18 MMOPA
P. 13

 rate was .84 per 100,000 hours and the PA46 rate was .65. Because of our low numbers, one more fatal accident would have pushed our rate to approximately .98.
If we compare today’s
GA rates to 1950, we’ll see
the non-fatal rate drop
from 46.6 to 3.3 and the
fatal rate from 5.1 to .84.
We continue to make
progress, but we’ll never
be finished. Ron Machado
remarked a few years back
that a rate less than 1.0
per 100,000 was really in
the noise level and that
it would be extremely
hard to do much better. Agreed, but that doesn’t keep us from trying.
Some notes on the graphs. The lines between the different categories are blurred because most accidents have more than one risk factor. A departure into IMC can result in a loss of control, i.e. stall/spin. I felt it prudent
to call out the areas were our issues lie (the numbers
Facts at a Glance
  PA46’s added to the fleet:
770
will not add up). I also revised the data to separate loss of control (LOC) into takeoffs, landings and accidents were a stall/spin were probable. My new term, Loss of Directional Control (LODC), refers to events during runway operations.
LOC & LODC
Loss of control in flight is always lethal (stall/spin).
I’ve often said, “In a PA46, if you land under control and don’t hit anything head-on, you’ll walk away.” If you land out of control (stall/spin) you’re not going to survive. The gateway to this category is weather. Most of these accidents involved convection, icing, IMC or a combination. Our
last three fatal accidents involved convection/icing and they also included a connection to datalink weather.
With weather in the lead, it’s more than appropriate we re-evaluate our weather savvy. It seems the government wants to get out of the briefing business and focus on producing on-line weather products. There is a significant shift in this jigsaw puzzle approach that assumes any pilot can build a complete picture from the hundreds of weather products available online. The time and effort needed to do it properly may be more than some are capable or willing to invest. If you’re not comfortable in this environment, limit your exposure.
The LODC on takeoff has a higher probability of being serious due to the high angle of attack, high power and overweight conditions. Three of our fatal accidents were departures into IMC and two involved convective activity; all with fatal results. On the non-fatal side, five were triggered by loss of engine power/failure. At least three involved seriously overloaded aircraft.
Approximate number of hours flown: 2.7
million
287 127 265 91
Aircraft added:
Mirage
Matrix Meridian M500 Meridian M600
Figure 2
   MMOPA MAGAZINE   NOVEMBER / DECEMBER 13
































































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